Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Type III Bill Passes First Hurdle. SF 33, the bill authored by Senator Rick Olseen (DFL-Harris) to exempt teachers, coaches, and other providers of transportation on a non-regular basis from the requirements needed to drive school vans and cars passed in 2008, was passed on a voice vote in the Senate Transportation Committee and re-referred to the Senate Judiciary Committee, where it will likely receive a hearing within the next week.

Senator Olseen (pictured at right with Minnesota State Academy for the Deaf Superintendent Linda Mitchell and two MSAD students) convened a working group at several junctures during the interim to find language that would successfully reverse the interpretation in regard to Type III driver standards by the Minnesota Department of Public Safety (DPS).

As many of you are aware, when we left last session, the Type III driver requirements were thought to not apply to teachers, coaches, and other personnel who are not hired by a school district to provide full-time transportation services. Midway through the summer, DPS ruled that occasional drivers were subject to the new requirements and had to take physicals and receive training in order to drive these vehicles. This caused a lot of scrambling in school districts throughout the state, especially smaller districts, where budgets are tight already (and yes, these things cost money) and a furor among staff who were unaware they would be subject to these requirements until relatively late in the summer.

SF 33 should remedy the situation. Under the bill, those we believed to be exempt after last session are now clearly exempt from the new requirements of last year's bill.

I will keep you posted as to when the next hearing will take place.

Information Needed. Deb Griffith sent out a quick survey Tuesday afternoon asking each SEE member district to gauge the amount of cuts they would be subject to if no new revenue is forthcoming during the 2009 session.

The House K-12 Funding Division will be holding a hearing next Tuesday in which they will try to determine the pain that flat funding of schools would inflict on districts. I will be testifying and would like to have as much solid information as possible when I do that.

GRAD and Growth Model Discussed. The GRAD test and the new growth model developed by MDE were discussed in the House K-12 Education Policy Committee this morning. I was unable to attend the entire hearing, but discussion was spirited when I was present. One of the things that will be discussed this session is the number of tests students are forced to take in Minnesota and the costs for the state and local districts of these tests. One of the real problem with a lot of these tests is that they do not provide either districts or MDE with much in terms of the type of interventions that are needed to enhance student learning.

With revenue being very dear in the near future and perhaps beyond, resources will have to be marshaled in ways that ensure that the public is getting the most bang for its buck. Simply giving students tests without having those tests supply information to teachers and admininstrators that can be used to improve student learning is not the best way to spend money.

Interesting Event Coming Up. The Roseville Area Schools Legislative Action Committee will be hosting an event on Monday evening, January 26, 2009, at 7 PM entitled Why Invest in Education--Even in Difficult Times. The event will be held in the Roseville Area Middle School Auditorium located at 15 East County Road B2, Little Canada. The featured speakers are State Economist Tom Stinson and State Demographer Tom Gillaspy.

Stinson and Gillaspy gave a presentation to SEE a few years back when the economy was doing much better and it will be interesting to see if, and by how much, their message as changed in the struggling economy.

Richard Wassen, currently on staff at the College of Education and Human Development at the University of Minnesota (and formerly on staff at MDE and the State Board of Teaching) is one of the organizers of the event. Stinson and Gillaspy always (and I mean always) provide great and pertinent information and I am certain will prove to be no exception.
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Monday, January 12, 2009

Back to Work. The weekend's over and it's back to work for the feisty lads and lasses who comprise the Minnesota State Legislature. It was an extremely quiet day in the state senate, where the floor session lasted all of ten minutes. A grand total of 26 bills were introduced in the Senate, a surprisingly low number for the opening days of any legislative session. I guess it's amazing what a $5.2 billion revenue shortfall can do to stem the flow of spending proposals.

On the other hand, the House floor session (its first working session of the year) turned out to be quite the display of partisan theater as the Joint Rules were discussed. For those of you who don't follow the legislative process that closely, it may sound like a debate over the rules is about as exciting as a bunch of Lutheran church basement ladies swapping recipes involving the magic ingredient of cream of mushroom soup and while the annual debate over the rules usually involve phrases that have been dusted off each year since 1858, the debate never seems to disappoint. The majority is always cruel and the minority consistently aggrieved and never the twain shall meet.

Today was no different as the Republican minority came forward with a raft of amendments that aimed to make the DFL majority look authoritarian, arbitrary, and profligate. The DFL responded that the Republicans were simply being obstructionist. It's funny, but I swear I heard the same arguments three years ago when the roles were reversed and the Republicans controlled the House. In the end, today's debate won't have much of an effect, if any, on the final results of the session. Still, it's nice to know that the state's fiscal collapse hasn't totally caused total atrophy in the two parties' political muscles.

Bill Introductions.
SENATE



HOUSE





HF 40--Peterson, S.--Quality Rating System for Early Childhood Programs: https://www.revisor.leg.state.mn.us/revisor/pages/search_status/status_detail.php?b=House&f=HF40&ssn=0&y=2009

HF 49--Morgan--Modifies Alternative Teacher Pay Calculation for Intermediate Districts: https://www.revisor.leg.state.mn.us/revisor/pages/search_status/status_detail.php?b=House&f=HF49&ssn=0&y=2009



HF 75--Brown--Increase in pupil weighting for all-day, every-day Kindergarten: https://www.revisor.leg.state.mn.us/revisor/pages/search_status/status_detail.php?b=House&f=HF75&ssn=0&y=2009


HF 79--Brown--Removes wind energy production tax from county apportionment deduction for school districts: https://www.revisor.leg.state.mn.us/revisor/pages/search_status/status_detail.php?b=House&f=HF79&ssn=0&y=2009

HF 91--Slocum--Allows health and safety revenue to be used for elevator repair: https://www.revisor.leg.state.mn.us/revisor/pages/search_status/status_detail.php?b=House&f=HF91&ssn=0&y=2009

Last Charter School Working Group Meeting. Today was the last meeting of the Senate/House Working Group on charter school funding and policy. The discussion today centered around charter school facilities policy, especially as it pertains to lease aid and its uses.
The task force will be assembling its recommendations for introduction as a bill in the next few weeks. The Minnesota Department of Education will also be developing changes to current charter school policy, some of which will echo concerns expressed in the Legislative Auditor's report on charter schools.

Movie Review. My wife and I manage to catch a movie pretty much every weekend and I've decided to share my wide range of cinematic tastes with all of you. Last weekend, we were in the mood for something light and so instead of seeing the critically-hailed Gran Torino, we opted for (brace yourselves) Bride Wars. Calling this a chick flick is akin to calling Wilt Chamberlain (for the younger set: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilt_Chamberlain) tall.
I have to admit, the movie was pretty funny. I had two step daughters get married in the past couple of years and although neither one of those weddings came within a light year of matching the histrionics portrayed in the movie, as anyone who has been even marginally involved in a wedding, there are plenty of opportunities for missteps and hi-jinks.
In brief, this ain't Bergman (as in Ingmar, as Candice Bergman--Oops. I meant Bergen--was in the movie). Besides, it would have been called Brud Krig in Sweden and Bergman would have had the brides play a chess match with Death or something equally depressing. This is simply light fare that succeeds for an hour-and-a-half at getting one's mind off the deplorable condition of the state budget. I give it four atomizers out of a possible five on the Chickflick-o-Meter.

So guys, if you want to let the lady pick the movie for a change, this one's alright in my book. You could do worse than watching Kate Hudson's zany antics and Ann Hathaway's unwavering talent on a chilly Friday night. Be forewarned, there are no car chases or use of semi-automatic weapons.
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Friday, January 09, 2009

Meeting with Governor and Legislative Leaders. The Governor and legislative leadership had a meeting with the education community this morning (Friday) and I had the honor and pleasure of attending. It was a very interesting meeting with spirited discussion of the current economic challenge and its effects on every aspect of Minnesota society and how the E-12 system fits into this. It was a somber meeting at a level, as the point was made time-and-again regarding the condition of the state budget and how it will be difficult to provide any state money for any purpose this coming session. At the same time, it was an exciting meeting, as we are heading into uncharted territory for government in general and E-12 education in particular.

Some of the usual culprits came up in the discussion of how schools can be provided more flexibility in this environment, namely mandates. There are currently several working groups discussing the topic of mandate relief and it will be important for everyone in the field to share what type of mandate relief would be in order. Please e-mail me your ideas on mandate reduction. Any and all ideas are welcome.

The discussion was free-flowing and there was honest give-and-take. The problem, of course, is that there is little or no hope for getting any increase in revenue this year. That makes the discussion, while interesting, a bit one-sided in terms of solutions and admittedly a bit depressing.

Still, my kudos to the Governor and the legislative leadership for suggesting and holding this meeting. Joanne Knuth, Executive Director of the Minnesota Association of Secondary School Principals, made one of the key points early in the meeting; that being that there needs to be a common vocabulary used by all parties as we navigate through these difficult straits. I could not agree more and I believe everyone in the room felt the same way.

We are looking at one tough destination, but hopefully we can make progress this year toward re-tooling the system and preparing for the challenging times ahead.

Bill Introductions. I am going to post links to the more prominent education-related bills on the blog to give readers the opportunity to see what is being introduced and the language in these bills. The Senate was the only body meeting on Thursday, so here are the major education-related bills introduced.

SF 10--Bonoff--Shared Services: https://www.revisor.leg.state.mn.us/revisor/pages/search_status/status_results.php?body=Senate&search=basic&session=0862009&location=Senate&bill=10&bill_type=bill&rev_number=&submit_bill=GO&keyword_type=all&keyword=&keyword_field_short=1&keyword_field_long=1&keyword_field_title=1&titleword=

SF 11--Saxhaug--On-line learning changes: https://www.revisor.leg.state.mn.us/revisor/pages/search_status/status_results.php?body=Senate&search=basic&session=0862009&location=Senate&bill=11&bill_type=bill&rev_number=&submit_bill=GO&keyword_type=all&keyword=&keyword_field_short=1&keyword_field_long=1&keyword_field_title=1&titleword=

SF 16--Olseen--Repealing 2008 changes to Green Acres law: https://www.revisor.leg.state.mn.us/revisor/pages/search_status/status_results.php?body=Senate&search=basic&session=0862009&location=Senate&bill=16&bill_type=bill&rev_number=&submit_bill=GO&keyword_type=all&keyword=&keyword_field_short=1&keyword_field_long=1&keyword_field_title=1&titleword=

SF 19--Wiger--Increasing compulsary attendance age to 18: https://www.revisor.leg.state.mn.us/revisor/pages/search_status/status_results.php?body=Senate&search=basic&session=0862009&location=Senate&bill=19&bill_type=bill&rev_number=&submit_bill=GO&keyword_type=all&keyword=&keyword_field_short=1&keyword_field_long=1&keyword_field_title=1&titleword=

SF 21--Wiger--Establishing P-20 Partnership: https://www.revisor.leg.state.mn.us/revisor/pages/search_status/status_results.php?body=Senate&search=basic&session=0862009&location=Senate&bill=21&bill_type=bill&rev_number=&submit_bill=GO&keyword_type=all&keyword=&keyword_field_short=1&keyword_field_long=1&keyword_field_title=1&titleword=

SF 23--Wiger--Repealing Labor Day start: https://www.revisor.leg.state.mn.us/revisor/pages/search_status/status_results.php?body=Senate&search=basic&session=0862009&location=Senate&bill=21&bill_type=bill&rev_number=&submit_bill=GO&keyword_type=all&keyword=&keyword_field_short=1&keyword_field_long=1&keyword_field_title=1&titleword=

SF 33--Olseen--Type III changes: https://www.revisor.leg.state.mn.us/revisor/pages/search_status/status_results.php?body=Senate&search=basic&session=0862009&location=Senate&bill=33&bill_type=bill&rev_number=&submit_bill=GO&keyword_type=all&keyword=&keyword_field_short=1&keyword_field_long=1&keyword_field_title=1&titleword=

Hopefully, this will be a good way to keep everyone informed as to what is being discussed at the Legislature.

Comments Please. I am going to be using the blog a lot this year and I need to hear if it is working for you. My e-mail link is on the blog's main page, so feel free to drop a line.
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Thursday, January 08, 2009

Shared Service Initiative Gets Aired. The shared service initiative authored by Senator Terry Bonoff (DFL-Minnetonka) and supported by Governor Pawlenty (R-Minnesota) was heard in the Senate E-12 Budget/Policy Division this morning. The proposal received a mix of support and constructive criticism with a few comments questioning how it would actually work and what the net effect would be for school districts.

Much of the foundational work for this proposal was performed by the Minneapolis office of Deloitte and Touche and Steve Dahl from their office provided input on both the expected framework of the shared services initiative and some of the successes enjoyed by districts in other states--mainly Pennsylvania--where the program has been in place.

From the school community, most of the testimony was qualified support. MSBA provided some scenarios that could prove troublesome, but the point was made repeatedly that this bill is merely the template and that--seeing the bill hasn't been introduced--it's not even at the starting line yet.

My testimony echoed what I wrote on the blog yesterday. There is nothing inherently wrong with this approach in theory, but the frustrating thing is that the Legislature's attitude toward shared services has been similar to the behavior of the tides over the past three decades. It seems when enrollment is declining or money is tight, everyone talks about sharing services. The minute either of those dynamics reverses, everything goes on the formula. There is certainly nothing wrong with the latter (or the former), but if the Legislature and Governor want to support the sharing of services, they should make certain that other actions they take do not erode the ability to share services, especially direct services.

My point here is that the Legislature, in the 1990s, made two decisions that really worked against the sharing of direct instructional services. The first was sending special education and vocational revenue to the individual district and not to the cooperative where the services were provided. This action complicated the manner in which districts paid money to cooperative ventures and required more time spent on calculation than when the revenue was sent directly to the cooperative. Further, it put the cooperative on shaky financial footing.

The other disastrous decision that had an adverse effect on cooperative learning settings was the decision to roll transportation into the general formula and eliminate the non-regular transportation category. Transportation between learning sites was funded through the non-regular transportation category, which was comprised of aid and levy. When districts could no longer count on this money being reserved for this purpose (and inflation and other transportation needs ate away at the amount nominally reserved for transportation services), many districts found it more difficult to afford sending students to the cooperative settings.

Further--and why this always puzzles legislators is beyond me--districts tend to follow the direction inkled by legislative action. If the Legislature takes actions that seemingly encourage cooperation, districts tend to cooperate. If the Legislature takes actions that seemingly discourage cooperation, district tend to not cooperate.

Where this heads from this point is anyone's guess. The Legislature won't be putting this on a fast track, so there will be plenty of time for anyone interested to voice their concerns.
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Wednesday, January 07, 2009

If CSI is a TV Show, SSI is. . . .Give up? SSI (or the Shared Service Initiative) is the Governor's latest education proposal that was introduced at a press conference this morning (pictured at right). In actuality, it is not solely the Governor's proposal, but has bipartisan support and will be authored by Senator Terry Bonoff (DFL-Minnetonka) and Representative Ryan Winkler (DFL-St. Louis Park). The bill will be introduced and heard in the Senate E-12 Funding/Policy Division tomorrow (Thursday, January 8).

The bill is straightforward. Although the legislation contains several other Minnesota Department of Education initiatives that were part of the vetoed 2008 omnibus education policy bill, the central theme of the bill clearly revolves around the promotion of shared services between public schools, whether they are district schools or charter schools. The main services the bill seeks to have purchased on a shared basis are support services like payroll, food service, technology, and transportation. Whether or not it makes sense for all of these services to be purchased on a shared basis remains to be seen, but this effort is certainly going to garner thorough discussion.

While the basic concept is valid and even compelling at a level, various Governors and Legislatures have an uneven record when it comes to promoting greater cooperation and shared purchasing by districts. The concept is not new. The Regional Development Commissions and by extension the Education Cooperative Service Units (now simply Service Cooperatives) created in the early 1970s were intended to foster greater cooperation between the local units of government located in each region and the Service Cooperatives have long practiced cooperative purchasing to provide individual districts with greater buying power.

In addition, the Legislature created the intermediate districts in the 1970s, inter-district cooperation revenue in the early 1980s, and the education districts in the late 1980s to provide districts with a venue for joint purchases of direct instructional services, especially in the areas of special and vocational education. They also maintained a revenue stream for purchases made in a cooperative manner after individual categorical revenue for multi-district entities was eliminated in the early 1990s.

At the same time, the Legislature has at several junctures made decisions with at least an indirect effect of discouraging cooperation. The regional computing consortiums were eliminated in the 1980s. As stated above, revenue that went to multi-district entities was sent directly to districts in the early 1990s and although it was reserved for cooperative purchases for several years, it was folded ultimately rolled into the general education formula basic amount.

Given this history, it wouldn't take much to make a skeptic out of even the most casual observer. That isn't to say the concept doesn't have merit. There are a number of bugs that need to be worked out and it's not beyond the realm of reason to believe that can be done. What is needed most, however, is a clear direction as to what state policy makers want the school system--both districts and charter schools--to look like, set up the framework and expectations and then stick with the program for a decade to let districts (and charters) adhere to these policy decisions.

As I said earlier, the bill will be up on Thursday and I will be testifying. I'll let you know how it goes.

Education Week Grades Out. Education Week has published its annual "Quality Counts" results that grade each state on a number of measures. Minnesota has fallen to 24th in the Education Week survey, earning a "C" grade. It earns a C range grade in four of the six categories with a B+ in the Chance-for-Success category and a D+ in the Teaching Profession category.

Our slide is not a surprise to those in the education community, at least in this state. We have all seen a dramatic erosion in the amount of support accorded to public education along with the rise in mandates that continually absorb increasing portions of school budgets. What is a surprise to me is that we continue to earn a B+ grade in the equity portion of the education finance category.

The explanation of the B+ grade is so simplistic that it once again begs the question of "who really understands education funding." The main reason the equity grade is so high is the same lame explanation provided by the State Auditor a few years back when a report issued by the office showed that property wealth had little direct effect on the amount of general education a district received.

On its face, this is a legitimate point, but once you peel off the first layer of the veneer, the argument falls apart. I always use the Wayzata/Rockford example. Given the fact it receives more equity revenue than Wayzata, Rockford receives slightly more revenue than Wayzata when the referendum is eliminated from the calculation of general revenue. When the referendum is added to the calculation, however, Wayzata simply leaves Rockford in the dust. These are districts that sit right next to each other and there are similar comparisons that can be made. I am not going to trash high-wealth districts for their ability (and willingness on the part of their voters) to pass excess levies, but for a publication with supposedly as much expertise as Education Week to not comprehend that differences in property wealth as expressed through the passage of referenda, along with Minnesota's considerable commitment to compensatory revenue and sparsity, are the major reasons for discrepencies in school district funding.

Here is the link: http://www.edweek.org/ew/qc/2009/17src.h28.html

In one interesting note, it is telling (at least to me) that four states ranking well above Minnesota--Ohio, New York, Pennsylvania, and Maryland--have all undergone major education funding reform within the last decade either through lawsuits or task forces. Food for thought.

House Committee Rosters. As promised, here are the House committee rosters for the K-12 Policy Committee and the K-12 Funding Division.

Policy Committee: http://www.house.leg.state.mn.us/comm/committeemembers.asp?comm=86138

Funding Division: http://www.house.leg.state.mn.us/comm/committeemembers.asp?comm=86115
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Tuesday, January 06, 2009

A Bump or Two out of the Starting Gate. It didn't take that long. The first Senate session of the year was marked by prolonged debate over a topic that no one--at least most long-time legislative watchers--thought would produce spirited discussion.

The discussion centered around the replacement of recently-retired Secretary of the Senate Pat Flahaven (pictured at right). Flahaven has been Secretary of the Senate since 1973, when the DFL took control of the State Senate for the first time in the 20th century. To replace Flahaven, Senate leadership decided to split the Secretary of the Senate's duties between two existing employees: lead Senate Counsel Peter Wattson and Director of Senate Counsel and Research Joanne Zoff Sellner. I suppose arguments can be raised why taking the considerable--and important--duties of the Secretary of the Senate and splitting them between existing employees doesn't make a lot of sense, as the individuals tapped to fulfill these duties are already fairly busy, but it hardly seems to warrant the reaction voiced by the Republicans today.

In a side note, I would like to personally thank Pat Flahaven for his selfless service to the state these many years. I was very fortunate to have Pat as a mentor early in my legislative career and he taught me a ton about the legislative process and parliamentary procedure. I was blessed to work closely with Pat for several years and I still reap the rewards from the knowledge Pat imparted to me during that experience.
Hooray for my Hometown. Congratulations to the Cannon Falls High School "We the People" team for their first place finish in this year's competition. They now advance to the national competition in April.
For those of you not familiar with "We the People," it is an annual scholastic competition sponsored by the US Department of Education in which student teams are tested on their constitutional knowledge and their ability to apply constitutional principles to the a set of questions.
I had an opportunity to judge the state competition years ago and all the teams I saw were very impressive. Even those who were less elegant in their use of the language showed a vigor and commitment to understanding the US Constitution thoroughly.
Here is the article from the Cannon Falls Beacon reporting on the CFHS team's successful state tournament appearance.
Senate Committee Information. As promised, here is a bit of the committee information I promised you yesterday. The House, while naming its committee membership today, does not have its information posted on-line as of this evening.
Here is the roster for the Senate E-12 Education Funding/Policy Division: http://www.senate.leg.state.mn.us/committees/committee_bio.php?cmte_id=2008&ls=86
While I am at it, I will post the membership of the Senate Transportation Funding/Policy Division. As I reported yesterday, this committee will be hearing the proposed Type III driver qualification revisions authored by Senator Rick Olseen (DFL-Harris) next Tuesday. I am sure that many of you have concerns regarding the changes made last session and how these changes were interpreted by the Department of Public Safety and it is important that the Senate committee hear from school personnel on why Senator Olseen's bill needs to be passed.
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Monday, January 05, 2009

They're Baaaaaaaaaaaaaack! I probably used that one last year, but if it's not broke (well, the state is broke), then don't fix it. The 86th Legislature convenes tomorrow in what promises to be one of the more painful legislative sessions in the state's history. Staring at more than $5 billion in revenue shortfall for the remainder of this fiscal year through the fiscal year 2011, a number of large decisions loom. From all indications, pretty much everything is going to be on the table when policy is discussed this session. From my angle, I cannot see how all of the work gets done within the confines of the regular session which is slated to end on May 18.

As for the Poltergeist reference, the blonde child actress featured in the movie--Heather O'Rourke--passed away at age 13 after appearing in all three editions of the movie. Kind of creepy when you think her main acting credits came in a movie about ghosts.

Committees Named. The committee structure for the coming biennium have been developed, but the members for each committee have not been formally named. As reported in an earlier edition, the Senate has combined the Education Policy Committee with the E-12 Finance Division, which will be chaired by Senator LeRoy Stumpf (DFL-Thief River Falls). While this is going to make for a full slate of meetings for the Senate E-12 Finance Division, it probably makes sense to have policy and funding more closely aligned this year than in the past. As everyone knows, policy more often than not carries a price tag and it may be instructive to have any proposed policies and their costs discussed in the same context and time frame throughout the session.

The House will retain its dual committee status with the Education Policy Committee chaired by Representative Carlos Mariani (DFL-St. Paul) and the K-12 Budget Division chaired by Representative Mindy Greiling (DFL-Roseville).

I will post the committee memberships when they are published.

Thoughts about Franken. I happened to be driving listening to public radio when the live coverage of Al Franken's Monday afternoon press conference came over the airwaves. As per usual, these kinds of things get me thinking.
I remember reading Franken's "Lies (and the Lying Liars who Tell Them): A Fair and Balanced Look at the Right" (It was a Christmas present. You folks know I would never read anything like this if it weren't. You can stop laughing now.). In that book, Franken takes on a number of pundits--particularly Minnesota's own Sara Janacek--regarding the Wellstone memorial and its effects on the 2002 mid-term elections.
What I was thinking today was, if the Wellstone Memorial would have been held after the election, there wouldn't have been a media feeding frenzy dissecting ever little utterance and gesture and audience reaction that occured at the event and Republican momentum (of which there was a substantial amount already) would have probably been stunted a bit, allowing Walter Mondale to probably (I stress probably) win the US Senate race, which would have likely made the 2008 US election over an open seat.
I've met Al Franken a couple of times and I think, if his election holds, he will tackle this job seriously (In a side note, he does understand SEE's issues regarding the referendum quite clearly and also understands the federal government's short-changing of school districts with special education funding). I don't see any Saturday Night Live cameos in his future (okay, maybe one). Franken was on a mission in the pursuit of this seat. I don't believe the pursuit was as much about Norm Coleman's record as it was about Paul Wellstone's legacy and how Franken believed Wellstone's memory was besmirched by the coverage of his memorial service.
Type III Issue. I don't have to tell any of you how the Department of Public Safety's interpretation of last session's Type III driver requirements has given school districts throughout the state Excedrin Headache #547. I am happy to report that Senator Rick Olseen's (DFL-Harris) efforts to bring together stakeholders on this issue throughout the fall to fashion a workable compromise have borne fruit and a bill will be introduced this week and will be heard in the Senate Transportation Committee next week.
I'm not going to go into it here, but if anyone of you wants to see me at my most un-Scandinavian, just ask me how I feel about the Minnesota Department of Public Safety's interpretation of last year's legislation that caused all the consternation. Remember that when we left last session teachers, coaches, and other school personnel whose primary duties did not include the transportation of students were exempt from the major requirements of this legislation. And that is what everyone believed up until late June when DPS decided they were not exempt.
Needless to say, the relatively late interpretation by DPS caught school districts by surprise and forced them to scramble to adhere to the law. Further, it made every one of us who worked on the bill throughout the 2008 session and were assured that teachers, coaches, and others were exempt from these requirements look like we didn't know what we were talking about.
I will post the committee roster for the Senate Transportation Committee later this week and I would urge you to contact members and urge them to support Senator Olseen's bill. Obviously, more details to follow.
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Tuesday, December 23, 2008

A Pause in the Action. The next week will be the last quiet one for awhile, as everything seems to wind down for the holiday season. Rest assured, things will be picking up right after the New Year arrives with the Legislature convening on Tuesday, January 6, 2009, at high noon (Gary Cooper will not be there).

I am sure you have been reading the same news reports (and variegated tea-leaves) that I have and this promises to be one of the ugliest sessions since the sessions (and multiple special sessions) of 1981 and 1982. It was session upon session back then, as every time Governor Quie and the Legislature would balance the budget, the next revenue projection would come around and announce once again that the state was in a hole. Governors have considerably more power now and budget reserves have been created (although they are now pretty much depleted) to help avoid the constant ducking in for special sessions, but I fully anticipate that we are going to have multiple sessions in 2009, especially given the considerable task of re-designing a number of state programs in an attempt to keep long-term costs under control.
There was one ominous--and almost totally ignored--line in the Governor's press conference relating to the mega-deficit we are now facing. That line went something like "I will be proposing some education reform during the 2009 session." Given the entirety of the budget picture, it isn't surprising that no one in the media picked up on it, but it is something we are going to have to be prepared for in 2009.

So here's to a relaxing holiday season with friends and family. In that vein, please accept the warmest in holiday wishes from the three cats that live in the Lundell basement. From the left they are Thater Chip, Button, and Puffy. Thater and Puffy each go 20+ pounds and Button hits the scale at around 13. They are just about the friendliest cats on terra firma and they love people just about as much as they love their food dish. So, from everyone in the Lundell household (including the two cats that outweigh Ol' St. Nick himself), have a pleasant and safe holiday season.
Just a Little Clean-Up. Representative Linda Slocum (DFL-Minneapolis) and Senator Kathy Saltzman (DFL-Woodbury) had their third in a series of four working group meetings related to charter schools last week. As with the second meeting, testimony was spirited and surrounded the question "how are charter schools really doing?" The working group will hold one more meeting in early January before drafting legislation. It is expected that legislation will be introduced from several quarters--including that of strong charter school supporters--to tighten up rules pertaining to charter school sponsors and provide training for groups and school districts interested in sponsoring a charter school.
In the school reform arena, I had breakfast with former Minnesota Commissioner of Education Bob Wedl and former MASA Executive Director John Maahs this week and we discussed their proposal to allow sites within a school district to basically become charter schools. The design is similar to that of relating to area learning centers and alternative programs as districts would get to keep a portion of the general education revenue associated with a student for district purposes. It will be interesting to see if proposals moving in this direction will have any legs given the budget deficit.
If any of you are interested in what Bob is proposing, he'd love to talk with you. He can be reached at robert_wedl@yahoo.com.
And last but not least, the St. Paul Conservatory, a charter school headed up by former Northfield superintendent Dr. Terry Tofte, was featured in Monday's Minneapolis StarTribune. Hey Terry, we miss you and don't be a stranger.
While we're citing the StarTribune, yours truly was quoted in this story by Norm Draper outlining the cuts being faced by metropolitan-area school districts as they prepare for next year. One thing we need to do, and we will be getting a survey ready for the legislative kick-off on January 22, is to gauge the cuts in SEE member districts. Look for that survey early in the new year.
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Thursday, December 11, 2008

Thank You SCRED. I want to thank the staff at the St. Croix River Education District (SCRED) for inviting me to their annual meeting. The meeting was at Grand Casino-Hinckley (don't worry, I didn't make a massive cash withdrawl and blow the entire SEE budget on slots) and was very informative. Four of the five SCRED members are also SEE members (Hinckley-Finlayson, Pine City, Rush City, and Chisago Lakes) and SCRED invited other SEE members Braham, Cambridge-Isanti, Mora, and North Branch to attend the meeting as well. It was like a SEE regional meeting where I didn't talk (and many were thankful for that).

First-year SCRED Executive Director Dr. Kim Gibbons gave a very informative presentation on Response-to-Intervention (RtI) and how SCRED's long history with RtI has fared. For those of you who don't know, SCRED was "RtI before RtI was cool" (paraphrasing Barbara Mandrell here) and has been working to incorporate greater use of curriculum-based measurement and response to identified learning issues with research-based intervention for over 20 years. It hasn't always been easy, as they have tussled with the Minnesota Department of Education on the use of RtI, but they appear to be winning the day as RtI is now becoming a nationally-recognized success at improving learning.

SCRED is lucky to have Dr. Gibbons at the helm. She has a national reputation as a leader on RtI and her work is helping school districts throughout Minnesota understand how this system can improve achievement and, if applied correctly, lower the identification of children with specific learning disabilities. I don't think I need to tell everyone how once a child enters special education they often become a "high cost" student. Special education is extremely important, but for it to be effective, it must be the appropriate placement for the student. RtI helps make certain that children are not being shuffled off to special education simply because there isn't another program to handle their needs.

Dr. Gibbons has provided me with a copy of the Powerpoint of her prensentation to a national leadership conference held this fall in Rochester, MN, and I will pass that on to anyone who is interested.

The rest of the evening was dedicated to discussion with local legislators. Representatives Jeremy Kalin (DFL-North Branch), Rob Eastlund (R-Cambridge), Bill Hilty (DFL-Finlayson) and Tim Faust (DFL-Mora) and Senator Rick Olseen (DFL-Harris) were in attendance and fielded a number of tough (but politely asked) questions from the crowd of school admininstrators and school board members. In the picture on the right, Hinckley-Finlayson Superintendent Jack Almos is moderating a discussion between (from the left) Representative Bill Hilty, Representative Tim Faust, and Isanti and Pine County school districts.

The universal response--and appropriately so--is that the budget negotiations are going to dictate everything. The deficits, both for the remainder of this fiscal year and for the next biennium, appear to be getting worse given the continuing lay-offs. Given that, the legislators present were extremely reluctant to make any projections on what may happen, good or bad.

The one thing, and I believe it is positive, that was broached was how this may be the optimal time to talk about transforming how government services, including education, are delivered. With the entitlement programs we have in place and the baby boom now just beginning to consume those entitlements, it is going to be difficult for society to continue propping up the status quo.
What we need to be concerned about in SEE is that any transformation of education leads to greater equity. As we know, and I did touch on this informally with a couple of the legislators present, is that while this may be an opportunity to close some funding gaps, the temptation on the part of a number of legislators in an era when state resources are tight will be to let those districts who have higher property wealth "take care of themselves" while everyone else will be left to muddle along. That simply cannot be allowed to happen.
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Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Charter School Echoes. It didn't take long for the dust to get kicked up after last Tuesday's legislative hearing on charter schools. Sean Kershaw, Executive Director of the Citizen's League, wrote the editorial for the StarTribune (at the link below), weighing in on the issues discussed at the hearing.

Kershaw Commentary: http://www.startribune.com/opinion/commentary/35571339.html?elr=KArksc8P:Pc:U0ckkD:aEyKUiD3aPc:_Yyc:aUU.

I want to start my response by saying I don't have any particular problem with the concept of charter schools. In my waning days on legislative staff nearly twenty years ago, I had the opportunity to sit on a couple of working groups that discussed expanding school choice to include the ability of school districts--and back then, it was only school districts in the discussion--to create charter schools. Through these discussions, I developed a healthy respect for many of those who advocate for charter schools that remains to this day.

But what is troubling in this whole episode is a reluctance on the part of charter school proponents to recognize that Myron Orfield, the Director of the University of Minnesota Law School's Institute on Race an Poverty, is more reporting facts than making value judgments about the performance of charter schools and how the enrollment patterns in charter schools are exacerbating racial isolation. Where Orfield appear to make a judgment is in the embrace of current laws pertaining to the desegregation rule.

I am not going to weigh in on that because I can see both sides of the argument. I have never believed that creating and maintaining racial balances will, in and of themselves, promote greater achievement. If it did, all we'd have to do is get out the ol' slide rule and watch the magic happen. And I can understand the frustration of the minority community with a system that sometimes appears to be more intent on developing student ratios than promoting student learning and seek to have more control over their community's education through the establishment of charter schools. The testimony of Minneapolis Councilman Don Samuels, Eric Mahmoud, and former St. Paul Councilman Bill Wilson bore that out and the achievement levels in the schools in which they are directly involved are promising. Unfortunately, many charter schools aren't doing nearly as well and are often rife with management issues.

Where I start to get a little bent out of shape is when people seemingly give charter schools a pass on their achievement scores. The law is clear. It's not like Orfield was at the State Fair handing out "Charter School Criticism on a Stick" in the same way that the Minnesota Department of Education was handing out school scores "on a stick" in 2003. His report simply reported raw data and made similar judgments regarding charter school performance that are made when public school test scores are released and usually accompanied by damning headlines at every daily newspaper in the state.

What is particularly maddening is that charter school supporters tend to pull out the same explanations mainline schools use to explain whatever difficulties they are having. It just seems when the explanations come from public schools, they are viewed as excuses while the same reasons, when cited by a charter school, are met with an understanding nod of the head. There needs to be, and at least Kershaw admits this, a single, meaningful standard of measurement developed that will look at student performance realistically and support further achievement in a dynamic manner as opposed to simply taking a snapshot of student achievement levels on a given day.

Three consecutive administrations have placed a lot of stock in charter schools (less so in the Ventura Administration, but heavily in the Carlson and Pawlenty Administrations) and have promoted them, sometimes at the expense of the mainline public school system. Programs like charter school lease aid have produced some questionable decisions and have cost the state a considerable amount of money. Rules relating to sponsorship of charter schools have been loosened, allowing the establishment of some charter schools that should not have been created and allowing charters to be created without having a formal agreement from the school district in which they are located. Management of some charter schools has been nothing short of atrocious. There can be no excuses when problem like this arise, even from the most ardent charter school supporters. This isn't "poor little charters" being descended upon by critics from the vicious education cartel. It's a matter of following the law and meeting expectations.

There desperately needs to be a truce here. Continuing an "us vs. them" in this area serves no one's, especially the students in all Minnesota schools, district or otherwise, purposes. Charter schools are public schools with public school students, just like those students in area learning centers and alternative programs. In the discussions surrounding measurement of student achievement, there are threads of an agreement beginning to reveal themselves. This could be the opportunity that will, if not eliminate the tension, at least put everyone on the same plane in terms of operation and measurement.

MSBA Delegate Assembly. I forgot my camera, so I didn't get any quality candids of the many SEE board members in attendance at the 2008 MSBA Delegate Assembly. It was nice to see as many of you as I did run into and the discussion of the resolutions was interesting.

There were two positive developments during the proceedings. In her address to the delegates on Sunday evening, Representative Mindy Greiling (DFL-Roseville), chief author of the PS Minnesota bill, announced that increased equalization will be part of the comprehensive funding reform bill she intends to introduce early in the 2009 Legislative Session. HF 4178/SF 3828--the comprehensive funding reform bill introduced in 2008--did not include increased equalization although both authors voiced support for the concept.

The other development was the passage, by the delegates, of a resolution urging support for the comprehensive funding reform bill. While some may view this as a "no-brainer," there are concerns from some regarding elements of the proposed reform and it is very expensive. At any rate, on a vote of 94-12, the delegates voiced (more accurately, punched their support on their voting keypad) support for the bill. Hoo-rah.
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Thursday, December 04, 2008

If It's Not One Thing, It's the Same Darn Thing. My cousin Melvin told me that many years ago and I have to say it is one of the more simply profound statements I have heard and sadly fitting when looking at the state budget heading into big-time negative territory for the second time this decade. Yes, that's the SS Minnesota to our right, leaking red ink like there's no tomorrow. Maybe it hit the iceberg of the housing bubble or was attacked by a submarine firing tight-credit torpedos (or maybe I should just stop with the analogies).

At any rate, it was announced today that the revenue shortfall for the remainder of this fiscal year (which ends June 30, 2009) is projected to be $426 million. That's small change, if anything in the hundreds of millions can be described as "small," compared to the projected revenue shortfall for the 2010-2011 biennium estimated to be $4.8 billion, a more than five-fold increase in the shortfall from the $936 million shortfall estimated at the end of session.

The largest portion of the change comes from a $3.3 billion drop in state revenue since the end of session. The remainder of the shortfall comes from a $580 million increase in state expenditures (most of which are in the area of health and human service costs) over the same time period. Add these two numbers to the $936 million end-of-session shortfall and you've got a nice, tidy, $4.8 billion shortfall.

It was a very somber message delivered by Chief State Economist Tom Stinson (pictured speaking) as he outlined the reasons for the downturn in state revenue. According to Global Insights, the firm hired by the State Department of Managment and Budget (formerly the Minnesota Department of Finance now combined with the Minnesota Department of Employee Relations), the recession (yes, it is a recession) began in late 2007 and will likely last at least until late 2009. This basically stunts state revenue growth for an entire year. What makes this particular recession even more puzzling is that given the breadth of the economic crisis and the degree of damage in some sectors, knowing when the turn-around will begin is more difficult to gauge. The only safe assumption at this point (if there is a safe assumption in economics) is that this recession is going to be more severe than those experienced in the early 1990s or shortly after the terrorist attacks in September, 2001.
So, where from here? Needless to say, this is going to be a painful, painful legislative session. The budget story in the StarTribune this morning said as much, as legislators acknowledged that there is no way to "tax our way out of this" and that cuts will have to be made. What further complicates matters is that every reserve or pot of possible one-time money has been tapped over the past six years, so all cushions are gone. One area that will receive a lot of attention is that of health and human services, which continues to grow at a rate well above inflation. It will likely take a combination of state tax increases (if they can get around the Governor), program cuts, and property tax increases to get things to balance. Needless to say, I won't be planning a June vacation.
I don't know what to say about the prospects for education. Given the magnitude of the budget problem, I wouldn't expect any increase outside of the money going onto the formula from the change in the permanent school fund, but at its current amount, that won't even replace the loss of the $51 in one-time money approved last session. There is the possibility that the funding shift could be changed from 90% current year/10% subsequent year to something lower. That generates "balance sheet" money, but raises school district borrowing costs, making it a less-than-optimum option. Further, there is no guarantee that any revenue generated would stay in education.
Harry Truman once said, and I paraphrase, something to the effect, "give me a one-handed economist, because they are always saying 'on the other hand.'" I only wish Tom Stinson and his team would have been able to go to another hand for a rosier synopsis this morning. The only positive about having one hand today is that we didn't need to go to a second hand to count the number of billions we are in the hole. Hopefully, that will hold true as we move through 2009.
Minnesota Managment and Budget Documents: http://www.mmb.state.mn.us/fu-2008-nov

But There was a Demonstration. The small group pictured at the right showed up outside Room 15 of the State Capitol and chanted for higher taxes, especially on those in the upper-income brackets, to avoid making cuts to health and human service programs. In the background, you can see a State Trooper approaching. Right after I took this shot, the Trooper instructed the demonstrators that they could no longer chant or wave their signs and being polite Minnesota protesters, they complied. I honestly don't know how I feel about this. Scandinavian that I am, noisy demonstrations make me a bit uncomfortable--heavens, all those emotions--but in my advancing years, I realize that these people are ticked off and as long as they aren't taking hostages, why not let them scream (well maybe not scream, but shout with vigor) and wave their signs. I'm sure they'll be back during the session. Frankly, I'd be worried about the state of our democracy if they weren't.












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Wednesday, December 03, 2008

Charter School Hearing Kicks Up Some Dust. One of the really great things about my job is that each and every day is different and every now and then you stroll into a legislative hearing and are just flat-out blown away by the passion and insight provided. Such was the case at yesterday's hearing of the House/Senate Charter Schools Working Group. With all of the controversy surrounding charter schools, both in terms of performance and administration, arising in the past few months, the House and Senate Education Policy Committees have convened a working group to study where we sit in terms of this school reform 17 years after Minnesota passed the first charter school legislation in the nation. Shown on the right (from left to right, are working group chairs Senator Kathy Saltzman (DFL-Woodbury) and Representative Linda Slocum (DFL-Minneapolis) along with Senator Sandy Rummel (DFL-White Bear Lake).

The hearing began with a discussion of the Office of the Legislative Auditor's evaluation report on charter schools. The report was presented by its evaluation manager, Judith Randall (pictured at left).

While finding that after adjustments for different demographic and student attendance patterns are considered, differences in achievement between charter schools and regular public school are minimal, the report does make five recommendations. They are as follows: (1) Clarification by the Legislature of roles of the Minnesota Department of Education and charter school sponsors, (2) Implementation of standards for sponsors by the Minnesota Department of Education, (3) Requirement for all charter school board members to receive financial management training, (4) Expansion of conflict-of-interest laws as they relate to charter school boards, and (5) Repeal of the requirement that a majority of a charter school board be teachers.

When the Office of the Legislative Auditor embarked on their effort, many believed the result would be much more hard-hitting. Even if the report does not "blow the roof" off anything, neither does it give charter schools a clean bill-of-health. The report clearly points out the challenges facing charter schools, their sponsors, and the state as it grapples with an education movement where 24,000 Minnesota students receive their education.

Minnesota Department of Education Assistant Commissioner Morgan Brown responded to the Legislative Auditor's report and informed the working group that the Department will be introducing legislation that will address some of these concerns.

The "polite fireworks" of the day began with a presentation by former State Representative and current University of Minnesota law professor Myron Orfield's presentation. Orfield (pictured testifying at left flanked by Institute researchers Baris Gumus-Dawes on his left and Tom Luce on his right), who heads the Institute on Race and Poverty at the Law School, provided data and research from a report prepared by the Institute showing that charter school performance lags behind that of the regular public schools and, further, are serving to "re-segregate" inner city and inner-ring suburban schools Orfield has worked for years on issues related to poverty and whether or not one agrees with his conclusions, his methodology is meticulous.

A panel of inner-city charter school leaders--Minneapolis City Council member Don Samuels, Eric Mahmoud, and for St. Paul City Council member Bill Wilson (pictured in order from right to left)--defended the performance of charter schools, which are primarily comprised of African-American students. The African-American students at each of these schools is out-performing the African-American cohort of student not only in the inner cities, but also in a number of suburban districts. They also defended a number of charter schools that are not doing as well, citing the relative newness of those schools.

It was a commendable performance by all involved in the hearing, as charter school performance, especially as it relates to the performance of minority students can be a difficult subject to discuss. People on both sides of the issue spoke with both expertise and passion as they staked out their respective intellectual territory on the issue.

My take on the issue has less to do with charter schools and more to do with how we measure student performance. It's really too bad that this hearing couldn't have followed the Monday's hearing on assessment. What is clearly needed to clear up performance concerns in both charter and regular schools is a valid "growth" model for judging student performance year-to-year and building-to-building.

As controversial as charter schools have become, I don't foresee a day without them being part of the educational landscape in Minnesota. I can also appreciate the desire of many Minnesota's minority communities to have as much input as they can in the education of their children and how they can somehow feel stunted in these efforts by large school environments. What is needed is greater transparency in how charter schools operate and the encouragement to share more between the charter and regular school frameworks, so that best practices--moving in both directions--can find their way into more classrooms.

Resources:

Legislative Auditor's Report: http://www.auditor.leg.state.mn.us/ped/2008/charterschools.htm

Institute on Race and Poverty Report: http://www.irpumn.org/website/projects/index.php?strWebAction=project_detail&intProjectID=57

StarTribune Story on Institute on Race and Poverty Report: http://www.startribune.com/local/stpaul/35109429.html?elr=KArksUUUU
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Monday, December 01, 2008

And So It Starts. The beginning of the 2009 Legislative Session is more than a month away, but looking at my December calendar, it looks like it is already arrived. The starting gun went off today as the Senate and House Education Policy Committees held a joint hearing to discuss the high-stakes 11th grade mathematics test and other accountability issues.

The hearing began with an appearance by MDE Commissioner Alice Seagren and MDE Testing and Assessment Director Dirk Mattson describing some of the options being considered by MDE as the 2009 Legislative Session nears. The cause of the furor surrounding the high-stakes test springs from the fact that the passage rate is expected to be less than 50%. Because of the high-stakes (that's education lingo for "no pass/no diploma") nature of the test, it would prevent a significant portion of this year's juniors from receiving a diploma. Needless to say, this would be both alarming and inaccurate.

Several groups then provided their reaction and possible solutions to the problem. Dr. Ric Dressen brought in a team from the Edina School District, which is in the process of designing and approving an alternative path to a diploma for students who fail the high-stakes test. It's quite an comprehensive and rigorous pathway, but when Edina testifies--and they are impressive--it always makes me chuckle a bit. Edina is a well-staffed school district that simply has more people in the position to develop and implement this type of program. Most SEE districts simply don't have the additional people-power to make a change as significant as this one.

Which again leads us to the inevitable discussion of why MDE isn't providing more in terms of leadership on this crucial issue. I imagine as we move forward, we are going to hear all about possible waivers and other devices that will simply avoid the issue as to what the goals of the state's testing initiatives are and how to implement these goals in a way that will provide an accurate and helpful (for students, teachers, and the community-at-large) information about student achievement. In fairness to MDE, after almost two decades of having the stuffings knocked out of them in terms of personnel, they also are lacking the people to deliver the types of services that are helpful to school districts in this realm.

For my own part, I continue to be frustrated by the notion that somehow the subjective can be made transparently objective. What do I mean by that? The value of learning is often subjective. There are certain objective items that all students must know that can be measured very straightforwardly, but the ability to apply knowledge in a meaningful way is subjective to a great extent. Yet, in the wake of NCLB, states try to develop strictly objective criteria and measuring devices to give a snapshot of their progress in meeting, in my estimation for a great number of students, these foggy goals. Not foggy in the sense that the score on the test is not clear, but foggy in the sense that we don't really know if the knowledge being measured is authentic.

This discussion will continue as we head toward session. Senate Education Policy Chair Chuck Wiger (DFL-Maplewood) stated that a working group will be assembled to come up with a legislative response to this issue with the goal of having a bill ready to go early in the session. It would be great to get this taken care of during the first month of session, as the likely budget agony is going to take center stage starting in late January and having important initiatives like this one get gummed up in the budget negotiations would be frustrating. Decisive early action would be a much preferred route.

Now if I Can only Teach Him to Shovel Snow. Sunny has turned one and as a yellow lab, he is turning me into a gray terrier (I'm yapping at him all the time and turning grayer by the day) with his antics, but I will have to admit that he is the smartest dog on the block. Just a couple of weeks ago, I left the rake by the side of the house while I went in the house for a minute or so and when I returned, Sunny, as you can clearly see, was raking for me. What a thoughtful dog!
More Movie Reviews. I ran into Bob Porter at a legislative hearing this summer and he told me in no uncertain terms that he wanted to see more movie reviews. My wife and I usually see one movie per weekend and today, I'll report on Baz Luhrmann's epic homage to his homeland "Australia" which opened last weekend.
Kidman! Jackman! Other people! Awesome!
This is truly a fine movie. It hasn't received universal praise from the critics and at times, Luhrmann seems to be trying to tell the entire history of Australia beginning with the Pleistocene epoch in a mere 2 and a half hours making things seem a bit hurried, but it's been a long time since I've seen an "important" movie with less navel gazing and more concentration on broad (sometimes seemingly larger than life) themes.
For SEE members, it also instructive that Northern Australia is clearly a low property wealth part of that continent. So see it if you get a chance during this hectic month.
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Wednesday, November 05, 2008

Don't You Wish It Could Go on Longer? Well, election day is finally behind us (except for the recounts) and my guess is that most Minnesotans and Americans are relieved. Some may not be pleased with the results, but the die was cast with high turnout and little mention of voter impropriety, so it's difficult to argue that somehow things could have turned out differently.

The thing that struck me most, especially after the bitter campaign season, the grace and dignity with which both Senator McCain and Senator Obama carried themselves as they conceded and declared victory respectively. I've been listening to speeches for what seems like forever (I'm not sure I was actually at the Gettysburg address, but it sure feels that way some days) and I cannot recall two more inspiring and moving speeches delivered within such a short time frame. Both speeches were magnificent and really laid out the challenges facing this nation clearly. Further, the message coming from both men--reminiscent of their campaign themes of "Country First" and "Yes, We Can!"--spelled out the shared vision that although differences exist in the "hows" of building and maintaining our nation, the "what"--our United States--is something we all share.

And the Winners Are. I don't know how many of you out there are wrestling fans or can remember the booming voice of wrestling announcer Rodger Kent, who would utter in total disdain after a villian (usually Nick Bockwinkel or someone of that ilk) would defeat another opponent through dastardly means, "There's your winner, like him or not." Well, we have declared winners (in all but a handful) of the 136 legislative races held yesterday. There were some close ones.

The results for the two state senate races can be found at this link: http://ww2.startribune.com/news/metro/elections/returns/mlgssm.html?elr=KArks8c7PaP3E77K_3c::D3aDhUoaEaD_ec7PaP3iUiacyKUU

On its face, Princeton School Board Chair Lisa Fobbe's 86-vote victory over Alison Krueger is an upset, but there was the issue of the write-in campaign for former State Representative Mark Olson who garnered the Republican endorsement for the seat this summer after incumbent State Senator Betsy Wergin was appointed to the Public Utilities Commission. Olson lost to Krueger in the primary, but Olson's supporters vowed to commence with a write-in campaign and they did. It is difficult to determine whether or not the write-in totally did in Krueger, as one can never tell whether or not voters writing in Olson or someone else would have voted or voted for Krueger. Needless to say given the political complexion of that district, the Republican tends to win. Lisa Fobbe is, however, an excellent candidate, so it is difficult to discern how things would have turned out in the absence of the write-in effort. Needless to say, the write-in didn't help the Republican cause.

The House DFL caucus picked up two seats, but fell short of the 90 needed to make the House veto-proof. As I predicted yesterday (we'll get to those predictions later), I expected the DFL to pick up a few seats, but also believed that they would not maintain all of the seats they gained in 2006. While picking up six seats--Kulick Jackson over Erickson in 16A, Kath over Kuntz (vacant seat) in 26A, Sterner over Lindsay (vacant seat) in 37B, Obermueller over Wardlow in 38B, Rosenthal over Schneider (vacant seat) in 41B, and Newton over Cimenski (vacant seat) in 49B--the Democrats failed to hold onto four seats they won in 2006. Those seats were in 28A where Kelly defeated Wohllschlager, 31B where Davids (in a return to the Legislature) defeated Tschumper, 37A where Mack defeated Madore, and 51A where T. Sanders defeated Hamilton (vacant). Two things are important to note: (1) two of the DFL pick-ups (41B and 49B) were districts where Republicans who overrode the Governor's veto of the transportation bill either retired or were defeated in a primary, and (2) all four seats taken by the Republicans were against first-term DFLers--it's nit-picking, but 51A's first-term DFLer Scott Kranz chose not to run again--who took over a Republican-held seat in 2006.

The House race results can be viewed at: http://ww2.startribune.com/news/metro/elections/returns/mlghsm.html

About Those Predictions. Needless to say, I won't be heading to Vegas this year, as I used up all my luck with my predictions yesterday. I undershot on Obama's electoral vote total and the Coleman/Franken race was closer than I expected (and may be reversed after a recount), but other than that, my guessing skills were pretty decent.

Apologies. In my haste on Monday, I neglected to mention that St. Cloud school board member Joanne Dorsher, another candidate with SEE credentials, was also a candidate for the State House of Representatives against incumbent Steve Gottwalt. Three of our four candidates with roots in SEE did not win yesterday. In addition to Dorsher, Sue Bruns, and Otto Luknic all lost their races. Jerry Newton, as mentioned above, was successful in his race.

More tomorrow!
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Monday, November 03, 2008

The Great Swami Sees All, Tells All, and is Occasionally Correct. Well, we're about nine hours away from seeing an advertisement for something other than a political candidate. I know that you are all dying to know what is rolling around inside my fifty pound head (Yes, you are! Admit that you are!) and I am about to tell you. The spirits of elections past are being summoned and they will speak through me to give you the lowdown so you can rent a movie tomorrow night instead of staying up until 6 AM to see who won the Ramsey County Judge race.

I'm guessing that Obama wins the presidential race, comfortably but not overwhelmingly. My estimate is that he'll get 338 electoral votes to McCain's 200 and probably roll in between 52% and 53%. If you want to play along, a good place to put together your final prediction is at http://www.270towin.com/. There you can designate a state for a candidate and have a running total.
There are still a ton of states in play, but I just don't see how McCain can make a run on undecideds that is going to tilt them all this way. A lot of Democrats scoffed at Howard "Arrrrrrrrrrrrgggghhhhhh" Dean when he became head of the Democratic National Committee and insisted that the party try to run everywhere instead of staying within their electoral citadels and dig deeper for votes there, but that concept appears to be paying off, as Obama has made considerable inroads in the West, particularly in Colorado and Nevada. That alone wouldn't have been enough to put Obama in the White House, but I believe Dean's strategy is one of the underreported stories of the campaign season.

Moving on to the Minnesota US Senate race. I don't know about you, but it's hard for me to think that these guys like each other as much as they seem to by the looks of their commercials. Talk about mutual respect and warmth toward your opponent. I've never seen a set of campaigns that have taken to the high road and stayed there throughout the dialogue. . . . Oh, sorry! Nodded off there. I was dreaming about a land of milk and honey. Let me see what I wrote.
Hey, that's not right! As most of you know, I've been in this business for 30+ years and I don't think I've ever seen a campaign quite like this one. I wouldn't call it scurrilous and both parties have been taking their shots. It all kind of reminds me of this great scene from "Pee Wee's Big Adventure," which rivals "Gone with the Wind" and "The Godfather" as the greatest American movies ever made. The clip can be viewed here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOGWbzUM-y8. The cinema at its finest!
Seriously, I'm guessing the incumbent, Senator Norm Coleman pulls it off with about 42% of the vote. I think challenger Al Franken will come in around 40% with Dean Barkley netting the remaining 18%. I think the latest allegation against Senator Coleman, regarding some supposed campaign financing shenanigans that alleges a Washington insider funneled money to the Coleman campaign through his wife's job may actually help the incumbent, as there are some attacks that backfire (anyone else here remember former Senator Rudy Boschwitz' ginormous blunder in 1990--the last week of the campaign "Wellstone isn't Jewish enough" letter to his supporters). Same thing could be at play here.

But Dr. David Schultz of Hamline University (pictured at the left) not to be confused with Dave "the Harmmer" Schultz, former goon for the Philadelphia Flyers (pictured at the right), pointed out on Tom Hauser's show on Sundary morning that the Bachmann race in the 6th congressional district is probably going to spike turnout by Republicans in that district and he equated the current 6th congressional district for the current crop of Republicans with the traditional support for Democratic candidates in the 8th congressional district. Schultz believed that this turnout would, in his estimation, put Coleman over the top.

Speaking of the 6th congressional district, I'm guessing that the incumbent there, Representative Michelle Bachmann will also prevail. The Minnesota 6th is one of the most reliably Republican congressional districts in the country with strong representation in both the libertarian and cultural conservative segments of the Republican Party.

One place where the national Democrats should have put a little more concentration is this congressional district, as Tinklenberg wasn't even on the radar until the Bachmann faux pas while being interviewd by Chris Matthews on "Hardball." Tinklenberg is the perfect Democrat to run in this district, with a solid resume in both local and state government on issues of importance to the 6th district.

This race will be tight and had Bachmann made her misstep a bit later, she may have not been able to get enough commercials on the air to stop the bleeding. As it is, Bachmann has had time to respond and her ads have been solid overall. Further, Bachmann is a tireless campaigner and my guess is that she'll be working until 11:59 tonight to try and get every single vote she can possibly get. (In a late note, I see one national service has this one at 46-45 Bachmann right now and that means it's anyone's game.)
In a final national note, I believe the Democrats will pick up seats in both the House and Senate, but will not reach the magic number of 60, so get ready to be able to spell the word filibuster in your sleep.

Onto the Minnesota House. When the dust settles tomorrow evening, I believe the DFL will still control the House and will maintain a similar margin, maybe up or down a seat or two. This is all going, like two years ago, depend on who wins the close races. In 2006, DFL candidates won an inordinate amount of the close races and that might even out, especially in races in districts that are characteristically Republican where Republican turnout will likely be higher. Further, there are always some surprises on election day, which tend to even things out. In the Democrats favor is that there are interesting open seats which may fall their way.

In a side note, three candidates for the House have been heavily involved in SEE over the years. Former SEE president Sue Bruns is running in House district 35A against incumbent Mike Beard. Anoka board member Jerry Newton is running in the open seat formerly held by Kathy Tingelstad in House district 49B. Faribault board member Otto Luknic is running against incumbent Patty Fritz in House district 26B. Good luck to all of you!

I don't think I have to remind each and every one of you how important, and precious, the acitivites of tomorrow truly are. Everyone pretty much knows I am a big-D Democrat due to my sentiments, but I have always taken greater pride in the fact that I am a small-d democrat as well. All voices need to be heard and appreciated for a democracy to flourish, so get out there tomorrow and vote and remember to do the whole ballot!

I pledge to work with whoever is elected to promote the cause of our organization professionally and effectivley and I know the remainder of the organization feels the same way.
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