February Forecast In and It's More Good News.  Minnesota Management and Budget released its February forecast today and the numbers show the state has added $181 million to the projected surplus for the remainder of the biennium bringing the total to just over $1.5 billion.  Legislative battle lines, already drawn last week, appear to have been fortified by the news, with Republicans calling for tax cuts and DFLers advocating increased spending focused on early childhood programs.  The Governor has not given a comprehensive response to the uptick (that will likely be coming in the next week, expressed by his supplemental budget proposal). It's always important to remember that the forecast is merely that:  a forecast.  The trends that have contributed to the forecast number were all prior to the spread of the coronavirus, which has driven the stock market sharply downward this week and may create economic shockwaves that could slow growth and drive future forecasts downward.  Given the possible lingering economic effects related to the coronavirus, I wouldn't be surprised to see caution become the watchword for the remainder of the 2020 legislative session.

Excellent Hearing on English Learner Formula Today.  The House Education Finance Division hearing HF 448--Representative Kaohly Her's bill that would dramatically increase the English Learner formula--this morning.  I have always believed that the English Learner formula is the education funding formula with the greatest amount of formula "integrity."  The recipients of English Language instruction are easily identified.  The staff used to provide the instruction to these students is likewise clearly identifiable.  The exit criteria for students to leave the program are also clear.  There is no other formula in Minnesota's array of education funding streams in which costs can be so readily and accurately traced.  The problem is that the English Learner formula is so woefully underfunded.  There is currently a shortfall in the amount of revenue provided for language instruction to English Learners and the reported costs of providing these services exceeding $100 million per year and these costs fall on districts throughout the state.  Whether there will be money to at least partially correct this unfortunate funding shortfall this year remains to be seen, but this issue was also discussed at length by the Education Funding Working Group currently developing funding proposals for the 2021 legislative session and hopefully addressing this issue will be near the top of the list in that group's recommendations.

Senate Equalization Proposal.  I reported earlier in the week that the Senate Republican caucus has included referendum equalization in its comprehensive tax relief package and that proposal was introduced as legislation--SF 3533--on Monday, February 24.  It's the first section of that bill, so it is easy to find.  The proposal is very straightforward.  It raises the first tier equalizing factor from $567,000 per pupil of referendum market value to $650,000 per resident pupil unit of referendum market value.  The second tier equalizing factor is raised from $290,000 of referendum market value per resident pupil unit to $320,000 of referendum market value per resident pupil unit.  The proposal costs approximately $19 million per year and it would come in the form of property tax relief.  Thanks should go to Senate Tax Chair Senator Roger Chamberlain who has been a strong and consistent supporter of referendum equalization.  Hopefully, more progress can be made this session to augment that $10 million put into the program in 2019.

Another Horrid and Avoidable Student Injury.  Less than 48 hours after the Senate Transportation Committee held a compelling hearing complete with chilling testimony and video evidence relating to drivers ignoring school bus stop-arms, a 7-year-old St. Paul student lies in critical condition in a St. Paul hospital after a driver ignored a school bus with the stop-arm extended and the 8-way warning lights activated and stuck the student in the crosswalk on his way to boarding the bus.  As I wrote earlier in the week, I have worked on this issue for quite a long time and I constantly marvel at the fact that there are over 100,000 stop-arm violations per year (relatively few are prosecuted) and the number of violations shows no indication of abating.  In Tuesday's hearing, it was obvious there may be momentum to funding an extensive public education program to bring greater awareness to the stop-arm law and the today's unfortunate incident is evidence that it is needed and needed now.

StarTribune: St. Paul 7-year-old critical after he's struck while walking to his bus

WCCO TV: Boy, 7, Critically Injured By Motorist While Attempting To Board School Bus, Driver Cooperating With Police